All,

As expected, Tropical Storm Ian has intensified into a Category 1 Hurricane during the early morning hours today. Due to the very warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea, and even warmer waters in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Ian is forecast to intensify in strength to a Category 4 hurricane by Wednesday afternoon or early Thursday morning. The NHC has once again modified the forecast track for Ian, shifting it a bit further to the east and closer to the Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg area of the western Florida Peninsula.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for much of the western Florida coast, plus the Florida Keys. Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Grand Cayman Island and parts of western Cuba.

Biggest concerns for western coastal Florida are the potential for Category 4 Wind Speeds (from 130 to 156 mph) as Ian passes near and along the western FL coast, potential storm surge in excess of 8’ to 10’ and heavy rainfall of 10” to 15”+ near the Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg area through Thursday morning, with more rain expected following Ian’s landfall early Friday morning near Cedar Key. Ian could make landfall near Cedar Key as a strong Category 2 hurricane or possibly a low-end Category 3 hurricane.

After landfall on Friday morning, Ian is forecast to move almost due north into southern and south-central GA. Heavy rainfall should be expected across parts of the Southeast, including areas of eastern & southeastern AL, most all of FL, most of GA, and parts of eastern TN, western SC and western NC over the next 5 to 7 days.

Below are the latest (5am EDT Monday, 9/26/2022) forecast graphics from the NHC.

Sid Sperry
President & CEO
SPIDI Technologies, LLC
SPIDItech.com
Cell: (405) 627-7754
Email: SidSperry@gmail.com

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