All,

Most of you know that I don’t put a tremendous amount of confidence in 7 or 10 day out Models - there’s simply not enough solid data to predict exact locations of a storm’s footprint, or to know with any kind of precision the amounts of moisture involved, or even the type of Precip involved.

All that being said, we are now about 5 or 6 days out from another POSSIBLE storm event involving the potential for ice, snow, sleet and rain. I’m showing below four (4) major forecast models: the Euro or ECMWF; the Global Forecast System or GFS, the GEM or ‘Canadian Model;’ and the National Blend of Models or NBM, in that order.

These four models are currently indicating the possibility of an ice, snow and wintry mix event beginning next Wednesday in the South Central Region and then moving east-northeast. Southeast Region states and Northeast Region states could be impacted on Thursday night and Friday of next week, with New England states being potentially impacted on Saturday. The models indicate the storm coming in 2 different waves, on Wednesday and then on Thursday for areas of north TX and southeastern OK and western AR, before moving east and northeast later in the week.

Again, these Models are showing forecasts at the 6 to 7 day out time frame, so a LOT can change, especially in location and certainly in amounts of ice or snow. One concern that I will share: some Models are showing the possibility of significant ice and/or snow in far eastern AR and parts of western TN and KY. This would be especially concerning for the Memphis, TN, area as they just recovered from a major SPIA Index Level 4 ice event that left thousands of customers without power for up to 12 days.

We will keep watching these Models, and will begin posting NWS forecasts as they begin predicting the approaching storm event at 72-hours or 3 days out, with more data.

Sid Sperry

EURO MODEL OR ECMWF:

GFS or AMERICAN MODEL:

GEM or CANADIAN MODEL:

NBM or NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (pink indicates ice):

Sent from my iPad