All,

Phil Jarvis from VMDAEC called me late this afternoon to ask about any forecast for icing that might stretch into this weekend. The two major models that I usually look at - the GFS Model and the Euro or ECMWF Model - both go out 10 days in advance. I stopped at 5 days out, or at 120 hours ahead, which would be Noon on Sunday, Feb. 6.

The GFS Model, shown first below, does show the possibility of some ice in northern VA and southeastern VA, plus some in far western VA. It also shows up to 7/10” of ice in east-central NC.

However, the Euro Model does NOT show the ice in southeastern VA or in NC. Usually, there’s not a high degree of confidence that an event will happen unless these two Models are in fairly close agreement with each other, especially out 5 days (120 hours).

We will keep an eye on this, though, and if these two major models begin to align (as they are for this next event beginning tomorrow through Friday), we will pass that info along to you.

Sid Sperry

Sent from my iPad