FYI… a Tropical Depression is likely to form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today or early Sunday after a developing disturbance moves northwest from the Yucatán Peninsula. This Tropical system is being forecast to move north-northwest along the eastern Mexico coastline, bringing significant rainfall first to areas of Central America, then the Yucatán Peninsula and eastern Mexico today and tomorrow before continuing to move north toward south Texas and then northeast toward Louisiana. By early to mid-week, parts of the southern and southeastern TX coast and the southern LA coast could receive from 2” up to 6”+ of total rainfall - more than 8” of rain could be possible in some isolated areas.

What is not known at this time is if this disturbance will continue to develop into a Tropical Storm. If it does, it would become Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm “Nicholas,” the 14th named storm of this 2021 hurricane season. I’ve attached some NWS wind speed forecast graphics in selected time periods through 7pm Monday. Note that by 7am on Monday, some forecast sustained winds in the 25 to 35 mph range are starting to show up in the western Gulf of Mexico as this disturbance moves northward. Tropical Storm force winds could be possible by mid-week along the southeastern TX coast, and parts of the southern LA coast. - Sid Sperry

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